US Maize Crop 2005
- Monday September 19, 2005
This analysis featured in the September 19, 2005 issue of the HGCA's MI Prospects, Volume 8, Number 6
This year's US maize harvest is expected to be second in size to last year's exceptionally large crop. This should meet anticipated domestic and typical export demand without resulting in a material change in carry-over stocks which increased to price depressing levels last year.
The USDA's September 1 estimate was for a 270.2Mt harvest, almost 11% below last year's record and 5.5% above the five-year average. At the time of this estimate the crop was about six weeks away from harvest. In normal years, the September estimate generally provides a reasonably accurate estimate of final supplies in years.
As was the case last year, this year's crop was planted earlier than usual and got off to a very favourable start (Graph1). In contrast to last year weather conditions during the summer were less than ideal. The proportion of the crop rating as good or excellent generally declined between mid-June and mid-August, while in 2004 the crop sustained favourable ratings throughout the season. Hot weather during the critical silking, or pollination, period in July appeared at the time to threaten yields, but only in the states of Illinois and Missouri crops appear to have been seriously compromised.
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The USDA estimates this year's yield at 9.0 t/ha, which is more than 10% below last year's record, but still the second largest on record. US maize yields have risen rapidly in recent years. Twenty years ago 7.5 t/ha was a typical yield. Production is also projected to be the second largest on record but this level of output does not seem exceptional in the context of increasing consumption. Over the last 20 years US domestic consumption has increased by about 50%, with increased livestock feed use and consumption in the production of sweeteners and fuel alcohol all contributing to this growth. No such trend is evident for US maize exports.
While the 2005 US maize crop appears normal with regard to production trends and consumption prospects, total supplies, specifically including the substantial increase in carry-over stocks from last year, are burdensome (Table 1).
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David Walker 001 780 434 7615
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